Nigel Farage could become the next prime minister, according to a new YouGov seat-by-seat projection that lays bare the scale of the Conservative collapse.
The MRP poll, based on interviews with 13,000 people over the past three weeks, indicates that if an election were held tomorrow, Reform UK would emerge as the largest party with 311 seats — just 15 short of an outright majority.
Polling shows Reform would take seats in Gloucester and the Forest of Dean.
Once the Speaker and Sinn Féin abstentions are taken into account, the figures would make it virtually impossible for anyone other than Mr Farage to command a working majority in the Commons.
The projection marks a dramatic improvement for Reform since June, when YouGov put the party 55 seats short of overall control. It suggests Reform would gain 306 seats, up from their current five — the biggest increase in parliamentary history.
According to the model, the House of Commons would be divided as follows: Reform UK 311, Labour 144, Liberal Democrats 78, Conservatives 45, SNP 37, Greens seven, Plaid Cymru six and three independents or left-wing challengers.
The result would represent a seismic reversal of fortune for Labour, which secured a 411-seat landslide just a year ago. Under the projection, Sir Keir Starmer’s party would slump to its lowest tally since 1931, losing two-thirds of its MPs — worse even than Jeremy Corbyn’s defeat in 2019. High-profile casualties could include deputy leader Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson and Lisa Nandy.
The Conservatives would fare even worse, winning only 45 seats — down from 121 in 2024, already their worst modern result. Such an outcome would push the party to levels unseen since the 17th century, when its predecessor, the Tory Party, first emerged.
With Reform UK surging ahead and traditional parties in freefall, YouGov’s figures point to an electoral shock that would redraw the political map of Britain.